Analysis of time overrun for flyover Bridge construction project in Indore using Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

Bridges Construction industry is measured as one of the most dynamic and risky industrial sector. Many bridge construction projects do not attain all their desired goals due to the presence of risks and uncertainties intrinsic in the project. Project failure takes place in terms of project delay, cost over runs and poor quality. This study aim to identify and analyze the major time delay factors for the bridge construction projects in Indore. A fuzzy logic based models were used for estimating time delay in bridge construction projects. The model use fuzzy set theory by taking into account the delay factors characterized in bridge construction projects. The developed models were applied on three fly over bridge construction projects in Indore. The model was calibrated for Kesarbagh Railway over bridge, validated for Rajendra Nagar Railway over bridge and testing on Teen Imli flyover bridge project.

The performance of the developed model was evaluated by comparing the predicted time delay by the model to the actual time delay. For the time delay model the prediction error was 7.25 % and 1.66% for Kesarbagh and Rajendra Nagar respectively. The fuzzy logic model tested for the ongoing Teen Imli flyover bridge. The estimated project completion time was 2 years whereas, the model predicted completion time was 4 year 5 months.